Cryptodiary (25.06): the rebound of the market and the victory of fear over greed

June 25

​​​​​​​How did the market recover from the fall on the weekend and whether to wait for the further growth? We analyze it in our daily heading.

As we expected in the Friday analysis, on the weekend Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the psychological barrier of $6 000 and rushed down reaching the «bottom» (it is difficult to understand if it is temporary) at the $5 826 mark. Immediately after it several large purchase orders were triggered immediately raising the coin price back to the $6 100-6 300 corridor where it is continuing to fluctuate now.

In this context, according to the data of the portal, the indicator of market sentiment Fear & Greed has reached the extreme values. According to the developers, the Fear & Greed Index takes into account such data:

the current and average value of bitcoin volatility (the greater the price fluctuation, the more panic on the market);

the volume of trading by digital currency;

key words and hashtags in social networks;

the polling data

bitcoin domination index

Google Trends.

Depending on the price of bitcoin, the indicators of «greed» prevail − when the price increases then the «fear» indicators − when it falls. How it happens now, for example.

The practice shows that the cryptomarket is very prone to emotions and reacts violently to any news. Ordinary crypto investors are worried about and without and their own actions accelerate the fall of the market while strong players play not only on the exchange but also on their nerves dropping the rate to the values ​​they need. It is exactly what we observed on the weekend (and throughout the past week) when the number of news from Asia including the hacking of Bithumb cryptoexchange, the tightening of regulation in Japan and South Korea forced the market to lose about $40 billion and go to the November indicators of $237 billion. Now the total capitalization of the market is only $251 billion and we have not seen such level since the April recession.

In the current situation the probability of the returning to the record levels before the end of the year is very low but the cryptocurrency market is rich in surprises and may surprise us. The founder of TradingAnalysis Todd Gordon predicts the restoration of bitcoin to $10 000 and the founder of London Fintech Week Luis Carranz assures that bitcoin can rise to $14 000.

The rebound that has occurred has triggered a corrective growth process. On Monday most of the largest tokens are in the green zone and show the increase by several percent. You can try to play on this growth but do not expect that it will last long. Now the pessimistic moods prevail in the news background that will certainly have an impact on the market. The Bloomberg analysts attribute such a sharp increase to the comments of the Swiss Bank for International Settlements on the need to regulate many cryptocurrencies by analogy with shares and bonds. But other factors could have played a role, for example, the market oversold and a number of positive forecasts from some experts who continue to believe in the long-term success of bitcoin.

Ethereum (ETH) reached its own two-month low breaking through the support level of $450 and falling to $440. Meanwhile, Vitalik Buterin in a conversation with the founder of the Consensus Lab Fred Wang said that there would not be the simultaneous implementation of both planned updates of the Ethereum network. First the Casper protocol will be implemented and then the sharding. Nevertheless the implementation of PoS is in full swing and it slightly encourages the ETH investors. The token has grown by almost 7%. Buterin also said on his tweeter that the non-profit organization Ethereum Foundation would join to the launch of the Stanford University-based blockchain technology research center.

Ripple (XRP) adds 5.3% but has not yet reached the mark of $0.50 that could keep this token from the further fall. But there is good news for this token too − the provided of the Edge cryptowallet added the support for XRP in its interface. Along with Ripple, the Monero (XRM) token was added to this platform and it added 15% because of this news. Also it became known that its support was added by another Abra cryptowallet.

EOS is almost traditionally stands out among altcoins. The new blockchain built on the DPoS system turned out to be much more centralized than its investors expected. The regulator of this blockchain (ECAF) recently banned transactions for 27 wallets suspected of hacking activity and provoked the community rejection by this. In addition to the criticism of the failed decentralization the voices of cybersecurity experts are increasingly beginning to sound warning of all the new vulnerabilities in EOS. The owners of this asset are predicted to suffer large losses from hacking. By now EOS has lost more than 64% of its April maximum (and -24% over the past week) but found the technical support at $7. Contrary to criticism, today the EOS token is growing quite speculative raising about 11%. The price reached the level of $8.17 but if it fails to consolidate at this level the downward movement to $4 is not ruled out.

The good results are shown by IOTA (MIOTA) that added about 10% as a result of listing on the exchange of Indian Pocketbits and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) that has risen by 9%. Meanwhile, the anonymous cryptocurrency Dash (DASH) delisted by South Korean and Japanese trading platforms due to the tightening of the rules on the turnover of anonymous cryptocurrencies overtook Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE) by the daily trading volume. The coin currently trading at $241 (+ 3.3% over the past 24 hours) is on the 14th place in the list of the largest digital currencies by capitalization.


One of the largest trading platforms in India Zebpay has published a warning to the customers that in the future it could suspend the withdrawal of fiat money (Indian rupee). Referring to the decision of the Reserve Bank of India to prohibit banks from dealing with cryptocurrencies (the local cryptoindustry try to protest it), Zebpay admits that «it may soon come a time when we will not be able to satisfy the requests for withdrawal. Please continue to do it only if you are aware of the risks».

And Binance warns the users that on Tuesday the planned update of the system will happen on it. During this update all trades and withdrawals will be unavailable. The suspension of the operations on the exchange will begin at approximately 5 am on MSK (2:00 AM UTC) and will last about 4 hours.

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